ZTrader Macro & AI Notes
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Why Is Gold Falling? The Iran War, the Fed Hike and the Real-Yield Math Behind Gold’s 2026 Selloff
Gold is falling because the Iran war's oil shock pushed the Fed into hiking and lifted the US 10-year real yield to 2.90%, its highest level since 2008.
 • Dorian
Trump's 5% Treasury Yield Problem: What BofA's US-China Stock-Bond Chart Really Shows
China's near-record-low 10-year yield came with two decades of equity underperformance and capital controls that Chinese savers are already working…
 • Dorian
Macro Weekly | Oil Prices, the Strait of Hormuz and the Midterms: How to Trade Brent Calendar Spreads
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline should return to full flow around election week, when Washington's reported timeline for renewed strikes on Iran…
 • Dorian
The US Bond Crisis: How We Got Here, From the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to Bessent’s Buybacks
Understanding the bond yield and timeline
 • Dorian
Why Is Gold Falling? The 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit a 19-Year High
Gold prices have dropped 8.6% since late August as the Fed rate hike pushed real yields to their highest since 2008, while inflation expectations stayed…
 • Dorian
MACRO WEEKLY: 10-YEAR YIELD HITS 5%: WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE AI TRADE
The market has not yet priced in the risks of over-collateralized AI chip loans, credit tightening, and inflation.
 • Dorian
Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices and Fed Rate Hikes: This Is Not an Inflation Problem. It Is a War Problem.
The Fed can raise rates, but it cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
 • Dorian
The Quiet Hike
It rarely happens: The Fed just voted 9–0 together.
 • Dorian
US Treasury Yields Break 5%, Japan’s Bonds Hit a 30-Year High
Both central banks are tied with the same systemic risks: INFLATION
 • Dorian
Hormuz is the BEST LEVERAGE ON EARTH (and how to trade it)
It only takes one low-cost attack to damage Trillions
 • Dorian
The Hormuz Trap: Why the World is Running Out of Maritime Chokepoints
We are on the blink of One of the WORST ENERGY CRISIS is human history
 • Dorian
VIX Term Structure & the Macro Cycle (VIX Playbook Pt. 2)
Why the yield curve — not today's VIX print — tells you when the regime actually turns
 • Dorian
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