Why U.S. Yields Actually Matter Right Now: From Yield Curve Mechanics to Recession Risk and Tactical Trades

TL;DR: The yield curve has normalized after a period of inversion and is now shaping up as one of the most misunderstood signals in macro markets. That normalization is not a clean recession-signal dismissal but a regime shift in how markets price risk, growth expectations, fiscal stress, and monetary policy. This piece explains how the curve works, why…