WEEKLY MACRO | TWO AUTHORITIES ARE BLUFFING. THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO FIND OUT WHICH ONE FOLDS FIRST

BOJ signals hikes it can’t deliver while defending the yen. OPEC+ stops even pretending to defend a floor. Week of August 3, 2026.

By Dorian

EXECUTIVE THESIS

Two central authorities entered this week having spent their credibility on words rather than action.

The Bank of Japan held rates on July 31 and warned inflation could overshoot target — a hike signal issued in the same week the Ministry of Finance was running its first coordinated FX intervention with the US Treasury since 201…