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The “Takaichi Trade”: Why Aggressive Fiscal Expansion and Dovish Monetary Bias Point to a Weaker Yen, Fiscal Stress, and a More Fragile JGB Market

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Dorian
Jan 15, 2026
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Ztrader | Macro Research (Premium)

Date: January 2026

Author: Dorian

This note is a macro-structural analysis and does not constitute investment advice.

Executive Summary (For Macro Traders)

Markets are no longer pricing Japan through the narrow lens of “when will the BOJ hike again.”

They are pricing a policy mix risk.

The rise of the so-called Takaichi trade…

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