Strait of Hormuz Closed, Oil Still Flowing: Why Brent Is Near $114

Brent futures are pricing the risk of US strikes after November 3, while physical cargoes have fallen $15 as Gulf exports recover.

With Gulf exports rebounding amid elevated tanker risk, the war premium migrated from physical Dubai markets to paper Brent futures.

By Dorian

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed once again on Monday. Yet, on the ground, Gulf crude continues to flow out of the region at near pre-war volumes.

This disconnect is laid bare in the p…