Hormuz Oil Shock Has Begun: Why the Iran War Could Become the Next Global Macro Regime Shift
Introduction: The Market Is Pricing the Wrong Risk
Financial markets have developed a reflex when it comes to Middle Eastern wars.
The pattern is familiar:
Conflict erupts
Oil spikes briefly
Markets normalize within weeks
After decades of similar episodes, investors have internalized a simple rule:
Middle East wars rarely change the global macro regime.
Most of…
