FED Cuts Are Dead. Hikes Are On Its Way

The inflation trade is not oil. It is the Fed losing permission to cut.

The question is not whether the Fed will launch a full hiking cycle.

That is the wrong frame.

The better question is simpler:

What if the Fed does not need to hike much for the market to suffer? What if it only needs to be unable to cut?

That is the regime shift.

For most of the year, the market’s hidden operating system was built around one assumption:

infla…