AI Capital Is Running Ahead of AI Earnings

Oracle’s Miss and the Growing Gap Between Compute Investment and Cash Flow

The easiest way to misunderstand an AI bubble is to look for the 1999 version: vaporware companies with no product, no revenue, and absurd market caps.

That is not the current setup.

This bubble—where it exists—is capex-shaped, expectation-shaped, and time-to-cashflow-shaped. The public market is not funding “nothing.” It is funding a timeline: the belief…